The Economic Cycles of the Tribulation
"And the merchants of the earth will weep and mourn over her, for no one buys their merchandise anymore" Revelation 18:11
The Fed is raising interest rates quicker than ever relative to the past 35 years, bank collapses in 2023 are already worse than those of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-2010, and losses on United States 10-year treasury bonds are the greatest since 1788 (the United States was founded in 1776 by the way…). Additionally, the treasury yield curve has inverted significantly, an economic indicator that is nearly infallible in terms of its ability to predict a recession.
So, as many signals point towards a major financial crisis at the same time that Biblical signs point towards the imminent beginning of the tribulation, I pose an important question. Do the eschatological texts of the Bible prophesy generalized economic turmoil in the tribulation, like what we think of in the Great Depression, for example (i.e., unemployment rate increases, inflation, interest rate hikes, stock market crashes, runs on banks, businesses failing, debt defaults, etc.)?
I will make the case that Bible prophecy indicates generalized economic hardship at the beginning of the tribulation, a recovery in the middle, and then a major economic crash at the end.
The Beginning of the Tribulation: The Bust that Brings in the Beast
In Revelation 6, God gives John the apostle visions concerning the beginning of the tribulation. In this chapter, John writes about three judgment events (known as the first three seals) that, historically, correlate with great economic hardship:
The rise of a powerful world leader, the antichrist (Revelation 6:1-2).
War taking hold of the whole earth (Revelation 6:3-4).
Great scarcity and price inflation of food, as is written in Revelation 6:5-6:
“When the Lamb opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, ‘Come!’ I looked, and there before me was a black horse! Its rider was holding a pair of scales in his hand. Then I heard what sounded like a voice among the four living creatures, saying, ‘Two pounds of wheat for a day’s wages, and six pounds of barley for a day’s wages, and do not damage the oil and the wine!’”
Preceding many wars throughout history, including both the World Wars and the American Civil War, were significant economic recessions negatively impacting at least one of the warring parties. Given the correlation between economic turmoil and large-scale war, if the Bible predicts another world war to occur at the outset of the tribulation alongside severe inflation of certain commodities (i.e., wheat and barley), then we can infer that a general economic recession, impacting more than just the price of food commodities, will affect large swathes of the world near the beginning of the tribulation as well.
Out of the rubble of a toppled economy and in the midst of military conflict, powerfully popular world leaders also tend to emerge. Just look at the rise of Adolf Hitler, who many thought could be the antichrist because of his hatred towards the Jewish people. Hitler rose from the ashes of a broken, post-WWI German economy to conquer almost all of Europe a few short years later in WWII. This is no isolated trend either, as Abraham Lincoln and George Washington did the same in the American Civil War and American Revolutionary War, respectively.
The Bible teaches that the actual antichrist will acquire global prominence as war overwhelms the earth and food prices skyrocket, only to completely overturn the modern, capitalist global economy 3.5 years later, replacing it with a totalitarian financial system where everyone must have a mark on their right hand or forehead to participate. It is written in Revelation 13:16-17:
“He causes all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and slave, to receive a mark on their right hand or on their foreheads, and that no one may buy or sell except one who has the mark or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.”
Since the antichrist unrecognizably transforms the way we transact today, it is reasonable to conclude that this new financial system rises from the ashes of a collapsed system used before the tribulation, especially if world war and inordinate food inflation directly precede this unholy transfiguration.
Lastly, if the antichrist’s financial system overhaul does take place directly after a generalized global economic disaster, it would certainly align with the age-old adage — attributed to Winston Churchill, yet another leader who rose to power amid extreme economic turmoil and world war — that seems quite popular among many of the global elites today, especially the World Economic Forum, “Never let a good crisis go to waste.”
The Middle of the Tribulation: A Marked Period of Economic Recovery
As we just reviewed, at the midpoint of the tribulation, the antichrist will implement the mark of the beast, which is required for anyone to participate in the economy. However, to mark everyone with this technology, there must be an economy doing well enough for most people to want to participate.
Therefore, after the economic recession that accompanies the beginning of the tribulation, the Bible teaches that the middle is marked by a period of economic recovery. If this were not so, then people would not bother receiving the mark of the beast or following the antichrist for that matter, even if the consequence of not taking it was the death penalty (Revelation 13:15)!
For a successful deployment of the mark of the beast, the majority of the world’s population, at a minimum, would have to voluntarily receive the mark for the death penalty to be remotely accepted or enforceable, no matter how large the antichrist’s army. If there was no positive economic incentive to take the mark, most of the world would simply barter among their localized community in a more primitive economy, or rebel against the antichrist’s totalitarian system.
Furthermore, the Bible contains other hints scattered throughout that point to an intact, recovering economy around the midpoint of the tribulation, despite the horrific judgments God unleashes upon the earth. For example, after the sixth trumpet judgment, which I estimate is around the midpoint of the tribulation, Revelation 9:20 reads:
“But the rest of mankind, who were not killed by these plagues, did not repent of the works of their hands, that they should not worship demons, and idols of gold, silver, brass, stone, and wood, which can neither see nor hear nor walk.”
So, after the sixth trumpet, if all of mankind left alive have the economic bandwidth to worship items that are non-essential to survival like gold, silver, and brass, rather than spend all their time working to buy food, water, and shelter, then it is safe to assume that the economy is doing well enough to afford luxuries in most of the world. If the economy was still in dire recession, where a day’s worth of food cost a day’s wages (Revelation 6:5-6), then most of the world, no less “the rest of mankind” left alive, would not be able to afford luxuries.
While the timing of the sixth trumpet is not guaranteed to be near the midpoint of the tribulation (it is only my estimation based on the context of the subsequent seventh trumpet judgment in Revelation 11), the abomination of desolation is (Daniel 9:27). With that in mind, in Daniel 11:21, 23-25, 28-33, there are a few indicators of an economic recovery around the time of the abomination of desolation:
“And in his place shall arise a vile person [the antichrist], to whom they will not give the honor of royalty; but he shall come in peaceably, and seize the kingdom by intrigue. And after the league is made with him he shall act deceitfully, for he shall come up and become strong with a small number of people. He shall enter peaceably, even into the richest places of the province; and he shall do what his fathers have not done, nor his forefathers: he shall disperse among them the plunder, spoil, and riches; and he shall devise his plans against the strongholds, but only for a time.
He shall stir up his power and his courage against the king of the South with a great army. And the king of the South shall be stirred up to battle with a very great and mighty army; but he shall not stand, for they shall devise plans against him. While returning to his land with great riches, his heart shall be moved against the holy covenant; so he shall do damage and return to his own land.
At the appointed time he shall return and go toward the south; but it shall not be like the former or the latter. For ships from Cyprus shall come against him; therefore he shall be grieved, and return in rage against the holy covenant, and do damage.
So he shall return and show regard for those who forsake the holy covenant. And forces shall be mustered by him, and they shall defile the sanctuary fortress; then they shall take away the daily sacrifices, and place there the abomination of desolation. Those who do wickedly against the covenant he shall corrupt with flattery; but the people who know their God shall be strong, and carry out great exploits. And those of the people who understand shall instruct many; yet for many days they shall fall by sword and flame, by captivity and plundering.”
At the very beginning of the tribulation, before the antichrist rises to power, his future kingdom is driven by greed, so much so that the people of the kingdom are willing to peacefully give full authority to the man, the antichrist, who brings them great riches. (This level of desperation is yet another sign of the economic hardship at this point in time.) Then, as the tribulation progresses and the antichrist and his empire become more and more wealthy, they begin to accumulate military strength and go to war with their neighboring nations. Therefore, the antichrist kingdom’s economic recovery is set into motion by deceitful and “peaceable” plunder (“only for a time,” which may indicate one literal year), activating their military-industrial complex (historically a powerful engine for any country’s economic recovery), and is continually funded by additional plunder thereafter.
Once the antichrist kingdom comes against the defensive “strongholds” of its neighbors, the surrounding nations, like Cyprus and the king of the South, are also able to muster armies and navies to defend themselves against the military might of the antichrist. Thus, there is likely some form of more global economic recovery that also occurs while the antichrist peacefully takes riches for his nation at the beginning of his rule. If this were not the case, the antichrist’s military would likely face no opposition at all because, without a global economic recovery, his kingdom’s neighbors would not have enough economic strength to feed themselves (Revelation 6:5-6), let alone muster a strong enough military to fend off the antichrist’s hordes.
Lastly, I’d like to address likely the main concern on people’s minds when they think about the final seven years of human history. Namely, how the 21 judgment events detailed in the book of Revelation, which pick up in speed and intensity like “birth pains,” factor into the economic cycles of the tribulation (Mark 13:8).
Besides the food scarcity that occurs at the third judgment and results in major price inflation of food commodities, it is not until the 17th judgment event, the third bowl of wrath, that food production is severely impacted again. The vast majority of the judgments after the third judgment directly impact human life, eliminating a total of half the human population (4 billion people) by the sixth trumpet, the 13th judgment event of the tribulation.
Therefore, even if scarce food production continues to be constant from the third seal judgment onward, the rapid extermination of human life will significantly decrease the demand on the food supply and subsequently deflate the high price of food commodities seen at the beginning of the tribulation.
The End of the Tribulation: The Great Repayment of Iniquity
Just after countries activate their military-industrial complexes, putting people back to work and increasing the velocity of money, and food prices deflate worldwide as the human population is halved, the perceived economic recovery will grind to a halt as Babylon falls from God’s great bowls of wrath in Revelation 17. The rapid fall of the final antichrist-ruled empire, who God refers to as Babylon, is detailed in Revelation 18:11-19:
“And the merchants of the earth will weep and mourn over her, for no one buys their merchandise anymore: merchandise of gold and silver, precious stones and pearls, fine linen and purple, silk and scarlet, every kind of citron wood, every kind of object of ivory, every kind of object of most precious wood, bronze, iron, and marble; and cinnamon and incense, fragrant oil and frankincense, wine and oil, fine flour and wheat, cattle and sheep, horses and chariots, and bodies and souls of men. The fruit that your soul longed for has gone from you, and all the things which are rich and splendid have gone from you, and you shall find them no more at all. The merchants of these things, who became rich by her, will stand at a distance for fear of her torment, weeping and wailing, and saying, ‘Alas, alas, that great city that was clothed in fine linen, purple, and scarlet, and adorned with gold and precious stones and pearls! For in one hour such great riches came to nothing.’ Every shipmaster, all who travel by ship, sailors, and as many as trade on the sea, stood at a distance and cried out when they saw the smoke of her burning, saying, ‘What is like this great city?’
They threw dust on their heads and cried out, weeping and wailing, and saying, ‘Alas, alas, that great city, in which all who had ships on the sea became rich by her wealth! For in one hour she is made desolate.’”
The passage makes two economic realities abundantly clear.
First, merchants, worldwide, who sell everything from gold to military equipment and food, profit greatly by exchanging these goods and services with the antichrist’s final empire, Babylon. Because Babylon does not inherit global significance until sometime into the final seven years of human history, these profits and merchants’ perceived riches further reinforce the fact that there will be an economic recovery as the antichrist comes to power during the tribulation.
Second, at the end of the tribulation, just before Jesus returns in Revelation 19, there will be an economic meltdown so severe that no one will buy anything at all, and all the globe’s wealth, no matter what asset or currency that wealth is stored in, will become worth nothing. This economic meltdown is God’s final, great repayment of the world’s iniquity.
Investing in Light of the Economic Cycles of the Tribulation
So, I hope I have made it clear why I believe the Bible teaches that the tribulation’s economic cycles consist of a recession at the beginning, a recovery in the middle, and a major crash, none like the world has ever seen, at the very end.
But, how might someone invest in light of these cycles? Well, I cannot tell you how you should invest as I am not a licensed financial advisor, but I can tell you how I am personally investing as a Christian who fully expects to leave the earth in the pre-tribulation rapture.
Firstly, I believe the economic recession at the beginning of the tribulation will utterly destroy the euro-dollar system. With astounding amounts of debt that will likely never be repaid based on the rate Western GDPs are increasing, coupled with the Biblical knowledge that the financial system will look completely different when the antichrist deploys the mark of the beast, I am absolutely not betting on United States treasuries, equities, or staying in dollars for that matter. Instead, I am investing in a bartering commodity that has proven time and time again to retain (and even increase) its value in economic downturns, especially when there is a global reserve currency transition, that is, gold and silver.
Next, the Bible tells us exactly what will be valuable and when it will become valuable as the world progresses through the tribulation. At the beginning of the tribulation, food prices will increase immensely. Thus, as I perceive the world’s food supply under threat and the tribulation rapidly approaching, I am storing up an excess of food (and water bottles, filtration, testing kits, etc.) so I can feed myself and exchange the soon-to-be valuable commodity for goods and services if the prophesied famine starts before the tribulation begins (or if I am wrong about the pre-tribulation rapture).
Coming out of the tribulation’s first recession, assets that fuel the military-industrial complex, like guns, ammunition, and energy (oil, gas, etc.), will likely be the first assets to increase in value. Therefore, I have begun to stockpile common calibers of ammunition as a bartering tool (as well as a defense mechanism) and solar energy production systems to hedge against the rising price of fossil fuels.
Finally, as the dust of war settles, luxury goods like clothing and technology will reemerge as high-growth, wealth-generating assets. At this point, however, the mark of the beast will likely have been deployed, so I will not be able to participate in the mainstream economy at the risk of being sent to hell, as is written in Revelation 14:9-11:
“Then a third angel followed them, saying with a loud voice, ‘If anyone worships the beast and his image, and receives his mark on his forehead or on his hand, he himself shall also drink of the wine of the wrath of God, which is poured out full strength into the cup of His indignation. He shall be tormented with fire and brimstone in the presence of the holy angels and in the presence of the Lamb. And the smoke of their torment ascends forever and ever; and they have no rest day or night, who worship the beast and his image, and whoever receives the mark of his name.’”
So, my game plan, if I am not raptured before the tribulation begins or if I am not killed by the time the mark of the beast is implemented, is to trade my goods and use my skills in such a way as to establish a small, self-sufficient community on arable land. Here, I plan to live out my days living a simple life, spreading the gospel as much as I can until Jesus comes to defeat the antichrist’s armies. Either that or I will turn myself into the authorities to be martyred as a Christian who refuses to take the mark of the beast. Whichever God leads me to do, I will do.
On that cheerful note, I would like to point out one of my core investing principles as I see our world rapidly approaching the final worst seven years of human history. I am investing solely in physical assets.
I fully expect to be raptured, so I do not want my money (and the time I spent saving it up) to go to waste, sitting in cyberspace unable to be utilized by those who are left behind. But even if the goods I leave behind are covered in dust and never found by the poor souls left on the earth to experience God’s powerful wrath, I would like to enter heaven having tried to leave something that was at least somewhat useful to the humans that enter the tribulation (and if I am one of these poor souls then these assets will be useful to me, my friends, and my family). As far as I see it, if I am raptured, these goods, placed alongside Bibles and rapture letters, will be an excellent witness to the truth and loving mercy of Jesus, a relationship with whom will be the most important commodity you can have to prosper throughout the economic cycles of the tribulation.