Earthquakes: The Beginning of the End

"But all this is only the first of the birth pains, with more to come." Matthew 24:8

Many prophecy teachers claim, “Earthquakes are increasing, and it’s just another sign of the times.” If this claim were valid, it would have the potentially undeniable implication that we are living in the days of Jesus’ return, as He taught in Matthew 24:3, 7-8:

“Later, Jesus sat on the Mount of Olives. His disciples came to him privately and said, ‘Tell us, when will all this happen? What sign will signal your return and the end of the world?’

‘Nation will go to war against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be famines and earthquakes in many parts of the world. But all this is only the first of the birth pains, with more to come.’”

Generally speaking, prophecy scholars have interpreted Jesus’ words to mean that earthquakes will increase in both frequency and severity in the days of calamity leading up to His second coming.

However, when teachers claim this is happening today, they seldom provide graphs or data to reinforce their claims. I’ve seen zero charts on the strength of earthquakes and precisely one graph on the frequency of earthquakes throughout my few years of eschatological research; still, no citations, data, or links were provided to verify the accuracy.

Today, that changes.

I took the time to write some Python code to query the free, USGS earthquake search endpoint for all global earthquakes over the last 75 years with a magnitude greater than or equal to 4.0, as tremors of this strength are felt by humans. When I finally gathered the data and plotted the frequency and severity of these quakes over time, I was shell-shocked.

First, I’d like to analyze the frequency of the earthquakes in question. The following chart plots the number of earthquakes that occurred every four months — that is, in each four-month bin — over the last 75 years. It disregards magnitude, apart from initially filtering out earthquakes less than 4.0 magnitude, as stated before.

As you can see, the frequency of earthquakes worldwide has significantly increased over time, with an almost perfect, linear progression from about 1972 onwards. There is one outlier, the current four-month period (the right-most bar), but that can be explained by the fact that we are only about 25% through the latest four-month period, as this data was compiled on September 10, 2023.

Next, I’d like to analyze the severity (i.e., magnitude) of global earthquakes over time. The following graph plots a five-year rolling average of worldwide earthquake data over time. I chose a five-year rolling average to smooth out noise and observe the general trend of earthquake magnitude over time.

As you can see from this plot, earthquake severity has increased drastically since 2015, with a jaw-dropping spike this year, 2023. To cause a five-year moving average to increase this significantly is unheard of and speaks to just how much more severe earthquakes have become this year alone.

You may think that an increase of 1.2 points in magnitude from 2015 to 2023 is no big deal. But consider that the Richter scale (how earthquake magnitude is measured) is exponential, meaning that a one-point increase translates to an earthquake that is ten times stronger. Therefore, according to the five-year moving average, earthquakes are more than ten times stronger today versus earthquakes just eight years ago.

Finally, so that you may be Bereans of sorts, here is a link to the code and the CSV of the plotted earthquake data.

To conclude, Jesus’ warning of earthquakes in the last days is rather vague, but if you cross-reference His words from the Olivet Discourse with the earthquakes written about in the book of Revelation, it is not necessarily foolish to expect that earthquakes will increase in severity and frequency in the days leading up to Jesus’ return. If earthquakes will have this behavior leading up to His return, which they do, then Jesus is objectively closer to returning now than ever before, by a significant margin.

To respond, again, I recommend you double-check my analysis (and comment on your findings below!). I also encourage you to commit (or re-commit) your life to Jesus and make Him your personal Savior and Lord. For the gospel is that He died on the cross for your sins so that, if you love Him (and if you do then you will follow His commands, His Lordship), you might be made righteous in the eyes of the Father and stand before Him on the last day of judgment without shame, ready to receive the free gift of eternal life. Amen.

Maranatha. Come, Lord Jesus!